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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 November 16
CAPESIZE: BRAZIL/CHINA RATES MOVED TO THE $11 PMT LEVEL; WEST AUSTRALIA/CHINA ROUTE MOVED UP CLOSE TO MID $5 PMT LEVEL - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
In the Atlantic we see a bit more activity than in the eastern hemisphere, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. Fhauls via Black ...
Wednesday, 02 November 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
A week before the U.S. presidential election, everyone is eager to see the socio-political effects that the result of these elections will have. As ...
Wednesday, 02 November 16
SHIP OPERATING COSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE IN BOTH 2016 AND 2017 - MOORE STEPHENS
Vessel operating costs are expected to rise in both 2016 and 2017. Repairs and maintenance and spares are the cost categories which are likely to i ...
Tuesday, 01 November 16
PANAMAX : A FAIR AMOUNT OF SIDEWAYS SHIPPING IN RATES - ALLIED SHIPPING
Capesize
A very sluggish start to the week, with rates dropping considerably as all optimism seems to have evaporated over the weekend. According ...
Tuesday, 01 November 16
IMPROVEMENT ON THE DEMAND SIDE ONLY BUT THE SUPPLY SIDE IS WORSE OFF - BIMCO
Back in May, BIMCO disclosed a projected “road to recovery” for the dry bulk shipping industry. The main message back then on what the ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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