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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 November 16
HANDYSIZE: THE ASIAN INDICES RECORDED A GRADUAL DROP EVERY DAY - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A rumour-fuelled market this week but essentially rates a touch firmer and owners cautiously optimistic. The flotilla of vessels heading ...
Monday, 07 November 16
THE SUPRAMAX CHARTER RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA WERE RATING AT AROUND $7500-8000 A DAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose slightly and ending in a positive note this past wee ...
Friday, 04 November 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tons ...
Friday, 04 November 16
INDONESIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS ARE UNANIMOUSLY AFFIRMED
Press Release: October 20-21, 2016 Indonesia Infrastructure Summit (IIC) opened at the Hyatt Hotel in Jakarta The theme of the meeting was "Pr ...
Thursday, 03 November 16
THE INDEX BASED COAL SALES & PURCHASE STRATEGY MAKES MORE EFFICIENT, SAYS 55.17% END-USERS
Considering the current coal market condition, the Index based coal sales & purchase strategy make more efficient was deemed the winner by 57.0 ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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