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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 November 16
PANAMAX: NO TRUMP INFLUENCE YET, AND THE MARKET IS HEADING NORTH - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Pacific Supra market still soft and falling this week, although seems to be in a somewhat slower pace compared to last week. According t ...
Wednesday, 09 November 16
SINGAPORE'S SGX COMPLETES ACQUISITION OF LONDON'S BALTIC EXCHANGE
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange Limited and The Baltic Exchange Limited together announced that the acquisition of the Baltic Exchange by SGX has ...
Wednesday, 09 November 16
SUPRAMAX: 50% INCREASE ON AVERAGE SINCE THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE YEAR - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Last week was an interesting one for the tanker market, which following the explosion of the gas pipeline in Alabama witnessed a spike in Atlantic ...
Tuesday, 08 November 16
S.KOREA'S KOMIPO ISSUES TENDER TO BUY 390K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR JAN-FEB 2017
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Monday, 07 November 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ROSE 59.57 PER CENT YEAR TO MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since May 2013. The government declared benchmark prices for Indo ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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