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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 November 16
FROTHY THERMAL COAL PRICES POINT TO DOWNSIDE PRESSURES IN 2017 - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says in an Outlook Report that the Asian thermal coal industry will remain under pressure in 2017 due to more-than-adequate capacity ...
Thursday, 17 November 16
CHINA STEEL EXPORTS TO REMAIN HIGH IN 2017, FITCH SAYS
Fitch Ratings expects Chinese steel exports to remain at around 100 million metric tons (Mt) in 2017, due to flat 'apparent' consumption an ...
Wednesday, 16 November 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Going through a relatively interesting second half of the year so far in the ship repair sector, we are experiencing a volatile climate of differen ...
Tuesday, 15 November 16
CHINA, FOR MANY YEARS NOW HAS SERVED AS A MAJOR GROWTH ENGINE FOR ASIA - ALLIED SHIPPING RESEARCH
It’s been a turbulent couple of days after the announcement of the U.S. Presidential results in the early hours of Wednesday.
After week ...
Monday, 14 November 16
KOMIPO'S SEOCHEON POWER PLANT TO IMPORT 240,000 MT OF SEMI / ANTHRACITE COAL FOR Q1'17
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 240K mt of Semi-Anthracite and Anthracite Coal f ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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