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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 November 16
CHINA IS ESTIMATED TO SEE HIGHEST IMPORTED COAL DEMAND LEVEL IN 2017, POLL SAYS
“Which country is estimated to see highest imported coal demand level in 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALsp ...
Monday, 21 November 16
KOMIPO IS LOOKING FOR 140K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR FEB-MAR 2017 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 140,000 Metric Tons of Sub-Bituminous coal for i ...
Monday, 21 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SURGES TO 1257 POINTS W/E 18 NOV; BPI ROSE 37.3% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally continues this past week and ending on a positive n ...
Friday, 18 November 16
CAPESIZE: THE COMMODITIES PRICES ARE INCREASING, RESULTING IN MORE DEMAND AND CONSEQUENTLY RATES ARE MAKING A BIG JUMP - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Apart from booming S. Africa where owners have obtained USD 14-15k to MEG/India and around mid USD 12k to China, the Pacific market has ...
Friday, 18 November 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.8 MMST, DOWN 0.8%, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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