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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 December 16
OIL PRICES MAY SEE LITTLE GROWTH BEFORE 2018, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
High inventories and the potential for US shale production to respond quickly to any market tightening mean oil prices may flat line in 2017 before ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
CHINA 2017 OIL, GAS OUTPUT DROP MAY WORSEN ON CAPEX CUT: FITCH
China's oil and gas production may shrink even more in 2017 than in 2016 after the country's leading oil companies cut exploration and prod ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
ANOTHER WONDERFUL WEEK FOR PANAMAX - FEARNLEY
Supramax
A slower start to the week in the Pacific compared to last Trips from N. China to S. China is paying in the range of low USD 5k, while I ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
AUSTRALIA'S PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.08 MT OF COAL IN OCTOBER; DOWN 10.39% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,124.7 Mi ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT TOTALS 17.2 MMST, UP 2.8% : EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17.2 million short ton ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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