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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 08 December 16
STABLE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL MINING IN 2017 : FITCH
Fitch Ratings' sector and rating outlooks for the global mining industry in 2017 are both stable, reflecting Fitch's view that prices have ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
CHINESE COAL DEMAND WOULD BE THE KEY FACTOR THAT INFLUENCE WORLD COAL PRICES IN 2017, POLL
“WHAT ARE THE KEY FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE WORLD'S COAL PRICES IN 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALspot.com ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
PANAMAX: THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Market remained firm - true mostly within Atlantic.
Star performer USG remained its title, where Supras reached around USD 21k ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 2% IN 2017 - EIA
U.S. Coal production in November 2016 was 70.7 million short tons (MMst), the third time this year monthly production exceeded 70 MMst, says EIA.
...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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