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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 December 16
TURNAROUND IN CHINESE ECONOMY HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to the most recent Weekly China Report published by Commodore Research, it has remained encouraging that the turnaround in China’s ...
Monday, 19 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 3.1% PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
Monday, 19 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO SOFTEN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continually decline this past week and ending on a negati ...
Thursday, 15 December 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH USD 7K FOR INDO/CHINA COAL ROUNDS - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Pacific has been relatively quiet this week, with some softening signs.
Supramaxes are achieving around high USD 7k for Indo/China ...
Wednesday, 14 December 16
INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL DISMISSED CHURCHILL MINING'S DAMAGES CLAIM AGAINST REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
The Directors of Churchill Mining plc advise that, the ICSID Tribunal (“Tribunal”) granted Indonesia’s application to dismiss the ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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