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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 December 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 15.2 MMST, DOWN 3.1% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million sho ...
Thursday, 29 December 16
CHINA AIMS TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER CAPACITY AT 1,100 GIGAWATTS BY THE END OF 2020 - REUTERS
China aims to cap total primary energy consumption at around 4.4 billion tonnes of coal equivalent in 2017, the director of the National Energy Adm ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND COMMODITY MARKETS HAVE ALREADY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT AND RENEWED OPTIMISM - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As 2016 nears to a close many will be breathing a heavy sigh of relief, having made it through one of the toughest years in this century and lookin ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
BUMA SIGNED APPROXIMATELY US$ 493 MILLION WORTH OF MINING SERVICES CONTRACTS WITH PT ADARO INDONESIA AND PT ANGSANA JAYA ENERGY
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. Has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA") has ...
Monday, 26 December 16
DO THE DERIVATIVES MARKETS MAKE COAL PRICES MORE VOLATILE? 59.21% SAY YES, POLL
COALspot.com: The substantial increase or decrease in coal prices within a short period of time has been supported by a number of fundamental drive ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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