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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 December 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 711.1 MMST; DOWN 18.5% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 22 December 16
INDONESIA LACK OF EXPORT TO INDIA THIS WEEK - FERNLEYS
Supramax
While the Atlantic is keeping up with rates, the Pacific has been weaker says Astrup Fernley.
According to Astrup Fernley, backhaul ...
Wednesday, 21 December 16
THE SUPREME COURT DECISION IN OW BUNKERS - WHEN A SALE OF GOODS IS NOT A SALE OF GOODS - LEON ALEXANDER, CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In May 2016 the Supreme Court of England & Wales gave judgment in an OW Bunkers test case entitled "Res Cogitans ...
Wednesday, 21 December 16
CLEANING THE OCEANS FROM PLASTIC - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2016 is coming to a close and it finds us in preparation for the 2017 enforcement of the Ballast Water Treatment Systems. We naturally are in thoug ...
Tuesday, 20 December 16
TRADE HAS FELT ITS BUMPS AND SHAKES THIS YEAR - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Trade has felt its bumps and shakes this year, as growing populist protectionist and nationalist movements in the Western world start to take hold. ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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