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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% s ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
COAL DEMAND GROWTH TO STALL AS APPETITE WANES, ACCORDING TO IEA
Growth in global coal demand will stall over the next five years as the appetite for the fuel wanes and other energy sources gain ground, according ...
Monday, 12 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.3 MMST, UP 7.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million short ton ...
Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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