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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 16
IT'S BEEN YET ANOTHER TURBULENT COUPLE OF DAYS..... - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It’s been yet another turbulent couple of days, with a significant number of news headlines shaking up markets.
On Friday we had & ...
Monday, 05 December 16
INDIAN HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2012, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to Commodore Research, the first eleven months of this year have seen India’s overall electricity production total approximately 1. ...
Monday, 05 December 16
THE DECEMBER 2016 HBA HITS TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MAY 2012
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since May 2012. The government declared benchmark prices for Indo ...
Monday, 05 December 16
BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX UP 5.98%; BALTIC CAPE INDEX FELL 2.52% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally slightly continues this past week and ending on a s ...
Sunday, 04 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 11.9% W/E 26 NOV; UP 1.4% Y/Y, EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million short ton ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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