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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 28 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX FALLS TO 1181 POINT, DOWN 76 POINTS W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities down slightly and ending in a negative note this past wee ...
Thursday, 24 November 16
SUPRAMAX: SOUTH AFRICA STILL STRONG WITH OWNERS ACHIEVING AROUND USD 14-15K FOR TRIPS EAST - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A positive kick-off in both the Atlantic and the Pacific. Very healthy rates within USG, some supras receiving well over 20k for trips t ...
Wednesday, 23 November 16
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is due to finalize a reduction in total production at its next scheduled meeting in Vi ...
Tuesday, 22 November 16
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO DECLINE 7% Y/Y TO 15 MILLION TONS IN 2017 - ITALIAN COAL ASSOCIATION
Italy’s steam coal imports expected to decline to 15 million tons in 2017, or 7% less imports compared to 2016. The coking coal imports are e ...
Tuesday, 22 November 16
THE COMMODITIES MARKETS HAD SHOWED GREATER PROMISE SINCE THE SUMMER PERIOD - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have all borne witness to the sluggish pace of trade growth witnessed during the course of the past 4 years as well as the even slower pace note ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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