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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 January 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE KEPT SURPRISINGLY FIRM AND ACTIVE DURING THE CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEAR HOLIDAYS - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The first week after a slow Christmas break has started off with little activity and softening rates. Not surprisingly, the market is fi ...
Thursday, 05 January 17
COMPARISON OF HONG KONG AND LONDON ARBITRATION - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst London arbitration is the most popular platform for resolution of charterparty disputes, where the parties involved a ...
Wednesday, 04 January 17
INDONESIA'S COAL PRODUCTION IS ESTIMATED TO REACH 434 MILLION TONS IN 2016 EXCEEDED THE GOVERNMENT'S INITIAL TARGET
Indonesia's coal production is estimated to reach 434 million tons in 2016 exceeded the government's initial target. The Ministry of Energy ...
Tuesday, 03 January 17
BENGKULU TO IMPOSE TOUGHER REGULATION FOR UNPROCESSED COAL AND MINERALS EXPORTS IN 2017 - MEDIA
Bengkulu provincial government is planning to impose tougher regulation for export of coal and mineral in 2017. According to liputan6 online portal ...
Monday, 02 January 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.62 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER; UP 4.18% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,201 Mil ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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