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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 January 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE KEPT SURPRISINGLY FIRM AND ACTIVE DURING THE CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEAR HOLIDAYS - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The first week after a slow Christmas break has started off with little activity and softening rates. Not surprisingly, the market is fi ...
Thursday, 05 January 17
COMPARISON OF HONG KONG AND LONDON ARBITRATION - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst London arbitration is the most popular platform for resolution of charterparty disputes, where the parties involved a ...
Wednesday, 04 January 17
INDONESIA'S COAL PRODUCTION IS ESTIMATED TO REACH 434 MILLION TONS IN 2016 EXCEEDED THE GOVERNMENT'S INITIAL TARGET
Indonesia's coal production is estimated to reach 434 million tons in 2016 exceeded the government's initial target. The Ministry of Energy ...
Tuesday, 03 January 17
BENGKULU TO IMPOSE TOUGHER REGULATION FOR UNPROCESSED COAL AND MINERALS EXPORTS IN 2017 - MEDIA
Bengkulu provincial government is planning to impose tougher regulation for export of coal and mineral in 2017. According to liputan6 online portal ...
Monday, 02 January 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.62 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER; UP 4.18% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,201 Mil ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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