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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 January 17
WHY THE SOLUTION TO INDIA'S ENERGY CHALLENGE LIES IN COAL POWER PLANTS - BENJAMIN SPORTON
India’s huge development and energy challenges mean there are economic and development arguments for investing in new coal power plants for t ...
Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL PRICES TO INCREASE IN 2017 AND IN 2018 - EIA
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 158 million short tons (MMst) (18%) in 2016, to 739 MMst, which would be the lowe ...
Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN THIRD QUARTER 2016 TOTALED 2.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 12 January 17
ASIA: COAL'S FUTURE - BENJAMIN SPORTON
As economies develop and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are realised, demand for energy will increase as more peopl ...
Tuesday, 10 January 17
SHIPPING MARKET 2017
After having entered into a New Year, fresh hopes seem to be high for this to be the turning point in the market that many have been looking forwar ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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