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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 January 17
WHY THE SOLUTION TO INDIA'S ENERGY CHALLENGE LIES IN COAL POWER PLANTS - BENJAMIN SPORTON
India’s huge development and energy challenges mean there are economic and development arguments for investing in new coal power plants for t ...
Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL PRICES TO INCREASE IN 2017 AND IN 2018 - EIA
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 158 million short tons (MMst) (18%) in 2016, to 739 MMst, which would be the lowe ...
Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN THIRD QUARTER 2016 TOTALED 2.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 12 January 17
ASIA: COAL'S FUTURE - BENJAMIN SPORTON
As economies develop and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are realised, demand for energy will increase as more peopl ...
Tuesday, 10 January 17
SHIPPING MARKET 2017
After having entered into a New Year, fresh hopes seem to be high for this to be the turning point in the market that many have been looking forwar ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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