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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 January 17
WHY THE SOLUTION TO INDIA'S ENERGY CHALLENGE LIES IN COAL POWER PLANTS - BENJAMIN SPORTON
India’s huge development and energy challenges mean there are economic and development arguments for investing in new coal power plants for t ...
Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL PRICES TO INCREASE IN 2017 AND IN 2018 - EIA
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 158 million short tons (MMst) (18%) in 2016, to 739 MMst, which would be the lowe ...
Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN THIRD QUARTER 2016 TOTALED 2.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 12 January 17
ASIA: COAL'S FUTURE - BENJAMIN SPORTON
As economies develop and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are realised, demand for energy will increase as more peopl ...
Tuesday, 10 January 17
SHIPPING MARKET 2017
After having entered into a New Year, fresh hopes seem to be high for this to be the turning point in the market that many have been looking forwar ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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