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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 January 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AND WAS ALMOST AT SAME LEVELS AS LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market did not change much and was almost at same levels as last week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships ...
Friday, 20 January 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED 15.7 MMST; UP 14.1% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
KOREAN POWER UTILITY BORYEONG POWER TO IMPORT 660K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR MARCH 2017
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 590,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal and 7000 ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
PANAMAX RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market remained flat and the week continued at the same pace as last.
According to Fearnleys weekly dry bulk report, still more ...
Wednesday, 18 January 17
TANKER: THE CLEAN PRODUCT MARKET IS STILL NOT GIVING US ANY CLEAR SIGNS OF RECOVERY - GEORGE VASTARDIS
While we are approaching the Chinese New Year, the Clean Product market is still not giving us any clear signs of recovery, especially on The East ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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