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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 January 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AND WAS ALMOST AT SAME LEVELS AS LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market did not change much and was almost at same levels as last week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships ...
Friday, 20 January 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED 15.7 MMST; UP 14.1% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
KOREAN POWER UTILITY BORYEONG POWER TO IMPORT 660K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR MARCH 2017
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 590,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal and 7000 ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
PANAMAX RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market remained flat and the week continued at the same pace as last.
According to Fearnleys weekly dry bulk report, still more ...
Wednesday, 18 January 17
TANKER: THE CLEAN PRODUCT MARKET IS STILL NOT GIVING US ANY CLEAR SIGNS OF RECOVERY - GEORGE VASTARDIS
While we are approaching the Chinese New Year, the Clean Product market is still not giving us any clear signs of recovery, especially on The East ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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