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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 January 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AND WAS ALMOST AT SAME LEVELS AS LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market did not change much and was almost at same levels as last week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships ...
Friday, 20 January 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED 15.7 MMST; UP 14.1% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
KOREAN POWER UTILITY BORYEONG POWER TO IMPORT 660K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR MARCH 2017
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 590,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal and 7000 ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
PANAMAX RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market remained flat and the week continued at the same pace as last.
According to Fearnleys weekly dry bulk report, still more ...
Wednesday, 18 January 17
TANKER: THE CLEAN PRODUCT MARKET IS STILL NOT GIVING US ANY CLEAR SIGNS OF RECOVERY - GEORGE VASTARDIS
While we are approaching the Chinese New Year, the Clean Product market is still not giving us any clear signs of recovery, especially on The East ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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