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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 January 17
FFA SUPRAMAX: Q1 AND Q2 TRADING UP TO $7100 WHILE CAL17 PRINTED $7250 - FIS
Capesize
Sentiment has swung quickly on capes and although there appears to be a very short list for open tonnage in the Atlantic Feb dates appea ...
Monday, 09 January 17
COAL MARKETS WERE UNEXPECTEDLY ONE OF THE STRONGEST PERFORMERS OF 2016 - SGX
COALspot.com: Coal markets were unexpectedly one of the strongest performers of 2016, with domestic production restrictions in China as well as sup ...
Monday, 09 January 17
THE INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE SLIDES AFTER THE RECENT RALLY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price slides in January 2017 after the recent rally. The government declared benchmark prices for Indone ...
Friday, 06 January 17
U.S. WEEKLY ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 12.4 MMST; DOWN 18.4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.4 million short ton ...
Thursday, 05 January 17
UNCHANGED COAL-FIRED TARIFFS PRESSURE CHINA'S GENERATORS - FITCH
COALspot.com: China's decision to keep on-grid electricity prices from coal-fired power unchanged amid higher coal prices will further squeeze ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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