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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 January 17
FFA SUPRAMAX: Q1 AND Q2 TRADING UP TO $7100 WHILE CAL17 PRINTED $7250 - FIS
Capesize
Sentiment has swung quickly on capes and although there appears to be a very short list for open tonnage in the Atlantic Feb dates appea ...
Monday, 09 January 17
COAL MARKETS WERE UNEXPECTEDLY ONE OF THE STRONGEST PERFORMERS OF 2016 - SGX
COALspot.com: Coal markets were unexpectedly one of the strongest performers of 2016, with domestic production restrictions in China as well as sup ...
Monday, 09 January 17
THE INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE SLIDES AFTER THE RECENT RALLY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price slides in January 2017 after the recent rally. The government declared benchmark prices for Indone ...
Friday, 06 January 17
U.S. WEEKLY ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 12.4 MMST; DOWN 18.4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.4 million short ton ...
Thursday, 05 January 17
UNCHANGED COAL-FIRED TARIFFS PRESSURE CHINA'S GENERATORS - FITCH
COALspot.com: China's decision to keep on-grid electricity prices from coal-fired power unchanged amid higher coal prices will further squeeze ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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