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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 February 17
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.13 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 17
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 1,130,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal f ...
Friday, 03 February 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.9% W/W; ROSE 17.7% Y/Y
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 03 February 17
US - EXECUTIVE ORDER ON IMMIGRATION AFFECTS VESSEL CREWS - GARD
From 27 January 2017, crew members carrying Iraqi, Syrian, Sudanese, Iranian, Somalian, Libyan or Yemeni passports are temporarily barred from ente ...
Wednesday, 01 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The recent placement of LOIs for 208kdwt Newcastlemax Newbuildings at $38.5m at Private Chinese Yard identifies with the modern history low for dry ...
Tuesday, 31 January 17
A CASE OF NEW YEAR BLUES FOR THE FAR EAST? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Unlike the typical lull in the market that we note during the period just prior to the Chinese New Year, 2017 has proved to be fairly m ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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