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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 February 17
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.13 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 17
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 1,130,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal f ...
Friday, 03 February 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.9% W/W; ROSE 17.7% Y/Y
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 03 February 17
US - EXECUTIVE ORDER ON IMMIGRATION AFFECTS VESSEL CREWS - GARD
From 27 January 2017, crew members carrying Iraqi, Syrian, Sudanese, Iranian, Somalian, Libyan or Yemeni passports are temporarily barred from ente ...
Wednesday, 01 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The recent placement of LOIs for 208kdwt Newcastlemax Newbuildings at $38.5m at Private Chinese Yard identifies with the modern history low for dry ...
Tuesday, 31 January 17
A CASE OF NEW YEAR BLUES FOR THE FAR EAST? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Unlike the typical lull in the market that we note during the period just prior to the Chinese New Year, 2017 has proved to be fairly m ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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