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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 February 17
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.13 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 17
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 1,130,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal f ...
Friday, 03 February 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.9% W/W; ROSE 17.7% Y/Y
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 03 February 17
US - EXECUTIVE ORDER ON IMMIGRATION AFFECTS VESSEL CREWS - GARD
From 27 January 2017, crew members carrying Iraqi, Syrian, Sudanese, Iranian, Somalian, Libyan or Yemeni passports are temporarily barred from ente ...
Wednesday, 01 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The recent placement of LOIs for 208kdwt Newcastlemax Newbuildings at $38.5m at Private Chinese Yard identifies with the modern history low for dry ...
Tuesday, 31 January 17
A CASE OF NEW YEAR BLUES FOR THE FAR EAST? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Unlike the typical lull in the market that we note during the period just prior to the Chinese New Year, 2017 has proved to be fairly m ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
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