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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 February 17
IF I PLAN TO UNDERTAKE A CHARTERPARTY WITH AN UNFAMILIAR ENTITY, WHAT STEPS CAN I TAKE TO ENSURE THE CHARTERER WILL PAY THEIR HIRE? - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to the difficult conditions currently existing in the shipping market, particularly in the offshore sector, Members a ...
Wednesday, 15 February 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Looking at the state of the Dry Bulk market exactly a year ago, there is no doubt that there is a significant improvement and despite the fact that ...
Tuesday, 14 February 17
OPTIMISM HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY FLOW BACK INTO THE DRY BULK MARKET - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Optimism has started to slowly flow back into the dry bulk market, with many in the market showing renewed optimism as the Pacific basin starts to ...
Monday, 13 February 17
COMBINED COAL SALES OF BUMI RESOURCES ROSE TO 87.7 MILLION TONS IN FY'16; UP 10.6 PERCENT Y/Y
COALspot.com: Combined Coal Sales of Bumi Resources rose to 87.7 million tons in FY’16 compared with 79.3 million tons in FY’15. ...
Monday, 13 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO TUMBLE IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continued its downfall in all segments except Panamax for the week ending 10 February 2017.
The Balt ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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