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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 February 17
U.S. COAL OUTPUT IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECLINED BY 158 MMST IN 2016 TO 739 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 08 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
The challenges the oil market has witnessed since the end of 2014 has resulted in a crisis for the global offshore oil and gas exploration industry ...
Tuesday, 07 February 17
WE ARE STILL RIDING ON A WAVE OF MARKET IMPROVEMENT, WITH THE GLOBAL TRADE OF MOST COMMODITIES STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVING GROWTH - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The end of 2016 came with a rejuvenated sentiment amongst most traders and investors, in part through the sigh of relief that 2016 was finally comi ...
Monday, 06 February 17
AFTER MONTHS OF GAINS, THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED MONTHLY COAL BENCHMARK PRICE IS STEADILY DROPPING
COALspot.com: Over the past two months, the HBA of Indonesian thermal coal has dropped around 18.06 percent. It sank to $ 83.32 per ton for Februar ...
Monday, 06 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED ITS DOWNFALL IN ALL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: Due to Lunar year holidays and celebration, the Freight market was declined in all segments week ending 27 January. The fall was cont ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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