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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINESE EXPORTS SHOWED A YEAR-ON-YEAR RISE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TEN MONTHS; S. KOREA'S EXPORTS UP FOR PAST THREE MONTHS IN A ROW - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have started to some sparks of life in the commodities markets these past weeks, with prices having shown a strong push during the past couple o ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINA SUSPENDS COAL IMPORTS FROM NORTH KOREA FROM 19 FEB
COALspot.com: China is suspended coal imports from North Korea until December 2017. China says it will suspend all imports of coal from North Korea ...
Monday, 20 February 17
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES SLIGHTLY UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week. The Panamax segment was declined for the week ending 17 February 2017.
The Balt ...
Friday, 17 February 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million sh ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE EXPERIENCED A STRONG DOWNTURN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market has shifted sides from Atlantic to Pacific, where Atlantic is now lagging behind with little action and sliding indices, notably ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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