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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 March 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATED AT 15.7 MMST; DECLINE 6.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 02 March 17
ULTRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA COAL ROUNDS IS BEING FIXED AT AROUND MID 11K BSS SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Holiday mode within Atlantic i.e. very few movements but rates remained still positive, mostly in the USG region where tight tonnage sup ...
Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodit ...
Tuesday, 28 February 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 17.39% LESS COAL IN JANUARY; TRADE VALUE UP 11.87% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,625.6 M ...
Monday, 27 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRMED UP THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 57.64% W/W
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commod ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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