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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 March 17
ESTIMATED U.S. COAL PRODUCTION ALMOST FLAT WEEK ENDED MARCH 4, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Friday, 10 March 17
THE 5TH PHILIPPINES POWER AND ELECTRICITY WEEK RETURNS WITH A UNIQUE FOCUS IN 2017
5th Annual Philippines Power & Electricity
18-21 July 2017
Solaire Resort & Casino,Manila, Philippines
http://www.philippinespowe ...
Thursday, 09 March 17
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE DROPPED FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH IN MARCH, GOVERNMENT DATA SHOWED
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price dropped for a fourth straight month in March, government data showed. The ...
Wednesday, 08 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET TODAY PROVIDES MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO LAST YEAR - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
So what's all the fuss about? During the past five months SnP activity has being surging exponentially in the dry bulk sector. Buyers are looki ...
Monday, 06 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO FIRM UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firm up this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk com ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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