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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 February 17
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS WITHSTANDS OIL PRICE SHOCK - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the Russian oil and gas sector has withstood the oil price stock of 1H16. Key events of 2016 include record ...
Friday, 24 February 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED AT 16.8 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 23 February 17
ULTRA SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA IS GETTING AROUND $10-11K BASIS SINGAPORE DELIVERY
Supramax
The week started off quietly in the Atlantic with more activity in the Pacific basin.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, frontha ...
Wednesday, 22 February 17
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
In 2016 a session of the IMO committee in London, set the new prerequisites effective from January 2020, which will necessitate global Sulphur cont ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
INDIA'S JANUARY COAL IMPORTS DECLINE 21.7 PERCENT YEAR -ON-YEAR TO 14.31 MT - PTI
Coal imports declined by 21.7 per cent to 14.31 million tonnes in January as the power utilities did not lift much fuel due to abundant stock avail ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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