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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 March 17
CAPESIZE: SHOWING STRENGTH; PANAMAX: VERY QUIET - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The Atlantic market faced less activity from the USG whereas at the Cont tonnage seemed to tighten up with more cargoes emerging. Despit ...
Wednesday, 15 March 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
Over the past two weeks, the Dry Baltic Index has been on an upward trend, breaking the 1000 point mark and creating a positive sentiment for the u ...
Tuesday, 14 March 17
ORDERBOOK-TO-FEET RATIO DECREASING; THE FREIGHT MARKET IMPROVING
It seems as though the renewed optimism that has arisen from the recent upward trends being noted in the freight market, the dry bulk market has be ...
Monday, 13 March 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 11.563 MILLION TONS COAL IN FEBRUARY 2017; DECLINED 12.19 PERCENT M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,4 ...
Monday, 13 March 17
INDO - INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES STAY FIRM
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ros ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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