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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 March 17
DESPITE THE CHALLENGING MARKET SITUATION IN 2016 THE DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR HAS ACHIEVED A NET PROFIT OF US$37 MILLION
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. has announced its financial results for the period ended December 31, 2016.
Despite challenging marke ...
Tuesday, 21 March 17
JAPAN'S RENEWED COMMITMENT TO COAL - BENJAMIN SPORTON
Japan is one of the largest economies in the world, and has long been a major consumer and importer of energy and a leader in energy technology dev ...
Monday, 20 March 17
IS THE DRY BULK INDUSTRY STILL ON TRACK FOR PROFITABILITY IN 2019? - PETER SAND
The industry remains well on target for profitable freight rates in 2019! This relies however, on the projected fleet supply growth rate of 0% in 2 ...
Friday, 17 March 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT VOLUME SLIDES 6.5 PERCENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 16 March 17
CHINA IMPOSING TOUGHER CONTROLS ON LOW-QUALITY COAL IMPORTS
China is ramping up controls on imports of low-quality coal due to concerns about smog and overcapacity in the world’s top coal consumer, a g ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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