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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 16
INDONESIAN 5000 GAR COAL ROSE 5.56% WEEK OVER WEEK - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: The price for thermal coal has recovered substantially since April 2016. The China’s new policy on its domestic coal miners, th ...
Friday, 28 October 16
STEAM COAL IMPORTS: CHINA AND INDIA'S ROLE REVERSALS - BEN TRIMMEL
While a sharp decline in European imports is a key driver of the expected fall in steam coal trade this year, China and India remain leading actors ...
Friday, 28 October 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE DURING THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 22 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 27 October 16
73.08 PERCENT OF COAL PRODUCERS PREDICTED INDIA WILL NOT STOP COAL IMPORTS IN 2 TO 3 YEARS - POLL
COALspot released its weekly opinion poll "How likely do you think India will STOP thermal coal imports in 2-3 years?" this Monday.
...
Thursday, 27 October 16
PANAMAX: FIRM ATLANTIC; TOPPISH PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The trend from last week is passed on. ECSA still strong with Supras from N Brazil to Med fixed at $9,000 to $9,500 daily.
Accordin ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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