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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 May 16
CHINA THERMAL-POWER OVERSUPPLY TO WORSEN - FITCH
COALspot.com: The overcapacity in thermal-power generation in China is likely to worsen in 2016 to 2017, Fitch Ratings says in a new report.
F ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
ON YOUR MARKS: TRACKING CHINESE TRADE - CLARKSONS
One of the major drivers behind the challenges currently facing many of the shipping markets has been slower demand growth. World seaborne trade gr ...
Monday, 16 May 16
INDONESIAN WEEKLY COAL INDICES AT POSITIVE LEVELS - CS (I) COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.31 percent week over week to averaging $38.94 per ton this past week, shows CS ...
Monday, 16 May 16
OPEC SEES RIVAL OIL PRODUCTION DECLINING
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $37.86/b in April, a gain of $3.21 or 9.3%. This was 40% higher than the lows reache ...
Monday, 16 May 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS WEAK AND ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT PANAMAX WERE DOWN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week.
The freight market was weak and a ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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