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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 May 16
AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE CARGOES PUSHED UP THE FREIGHT RATES FOR CAPE THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
It has been a big jump in the freight rates for Cape size this week, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. All of the Australian iron ...
Thursday, 19 May 16
DISPUTE OVER VAT ON COAL DRAGS ON, CAUSING DOUBLE-BLOW TO MINERS - JP
The dispute over the value-added tax ( VAT ) mechanism between coal miners operating under third-generation contracts and the Finance Ministry&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
DRY BULK OUTLOOK REMAINS GLOOMY SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE, AS SHIPPING NEEDS TO RETHINK BUSINESS MODEL - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Our Shipping Market Review – May 2016 is devoted to the fourth industrial revolution. To understand the truly disruptive nature of the fourth ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DECLINE AGAIN
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price declined in May 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the regulator of ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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