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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 May 16
COAL CARGOES - SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Indonesia continues to be amongst the world’s major exporters of coal, some 426Mt being traded in 2013 mostly to In ...
Friday, 13 May 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION IS RUNNING 33% BELOW THE SAME PERIOD IN 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.9 million short tons (mm ...
Friday, 13 May 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET RECOVERY WILL BE A LONG, HARD-FOUGHT BATTLE - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anyone who expects a strong rally in dry bulk market rates to end the industry’s downturn will be bitterly disappointed. By contrast – ...
Wednesday, 11 May 16
U.S. FORECAST COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECLINED BY 150 MMST IN 2016; THE LARGEST DECLINE SINCE 1949 - EIA
COALspot.com: EIA estimates that U.S. coal production in April was 46 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (12%) decrease from the previous month an ...
Wednesday, 11 May 16
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Saturday 7th May, Riyadh replaced the long-serving oil minister of more than two decades, Ali-Al-Naimi, as part of a major government overhaul, ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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