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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the ...
Monday, 09 May 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES UP CONTINUES; POSITIVE DIRECTION
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.10 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Wednesday, a ...
Monday, 09 May 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO WITNESS STEADY PROGRESS MOVING FORWARD ON THE BACK OF GROWING TRADE VOLUMES - BIMCO
In its latest short-term analysis of the shipping markets, BIMCO reiterated its optimism on the prospects of the dry bulk market moving forward. Ac ...
Monday, 09 May 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX ENDS WEEK ON A NEGATIVE NOTE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week.
The freight market was weak and a ...
Friday, 06 May 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 9 PERCENT W/W; DOWN 35.3 PERCENT Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.3 million short to ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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