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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 24 May 16
WEEKLY CS COAL INDICES NEGATIVE FOR ALL TYPES OF COAL EXCEPT 3800 GAR COAL
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was down 0.10 percent week over week to averaging $38.90 per ton this past week, sho ...
Monday, 23 May 16
A PERFECT STORM FOR INDONESIAN STEAM COAL EXPORTS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
Indonesia is the world’s leading steam coal exporter, accounting for over 40% of global seaborne steam coal exports since 2010. However in 20 ...
Monday, 23 May 16
THE PANAMAX INDEX WAS UP 17 POINTS W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this week.
The freight market was firm and all ...
Friday, 20 May 16
SHIPBUILDING CONTRACTS: CAN I CANCEL? SHOULD I CANCEL? - THE SHIPOWNER CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are many circumstances in which a buyer of a new-build vessel might want to terminate or cancel their contract with ...
Friday, 20 May 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDED 14 MAY TOTALED 11.4 MMST; UP 3.8% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.4 million short tons (mm ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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