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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 June 16
ZERO SUPPLY TO FUEL GROWTH IN THE DRY BULK MARKET SAYS BIMCO PRESIDENT
The dry bulk market could become profitable again in 2019 – but only if a series of extremely tough and sustained measures are taken by shipo ...
Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. &n ...
Tuesday, 31 May 16
CS50 INDONESIA COAL INDEX UP 0.28% COMPARED WITH A WEEK AGO
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $39.01 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BORYEONG POWER PLANT TO IMPORT HALF A MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 500,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal T ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BCI ENDING AT 830 POINTS, DOWN 4.6 PER CENT W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week. The freight market was weak this past ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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