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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 June 16
CS COAL INDEX ROSE FOR SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.38 percent week over week to averaging $39.16 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 06 June 16
BDI GAINED ON A STRONGER DEMAND FOR CAPESIZE SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week on a stronger demand for Capesize ves ...
Friday, 03 June 16
DRY BULK VESSEL DELIVERIES COULD BE LESS THAN 50 MILLION DWT IN 2016, AS OWNERS DELAY OR CANCEL NEWBUILDING ORDERS
The dry bulk market has been caught between a rock and a hard place over the course of the past couple of years, as on one hand demand has plunged, ...
Friday, 03 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIDES 1.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.5 million short tons (mm ...
Wednesday, 01 June 16
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IN APRIL 2016 DECLINED 15% Y/Y; COAL INDIA INCREASED COAL PRICES BY 6.2%
Coal India has approved raising weighted average coal prices by 6.2 per cent over the current price for both regulated and non-regulated sectors.
...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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