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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 June 16
CS COAL INDICES ROSE UP FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK; 4200 GAR COAL UP 0.73%
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.54 percent week over week to averaging $39.37 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 13 June 16
DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES COULD PROVIDE FUTURE BOOST FOR SHIP OWNERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
When it comes to the dry bulk market, shipowners these days are looking for news in any shape or form they can find them. However, as the discussio ...
Monday, 13 June 16
ONSHORE SHALE: WORTH KEEPING IN THE SHIPPING SPOTLIGHT CLARKSONS
Generally, shipping industry watchers spend much of their time monitoring events out to sea: how fleets are evolving, trade volumes growing and fre ...
Monday, 13 June 16
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 5.03% MORE COAL IN MAY; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DECLINED 2.08% FROM APRIL
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.162bill ...
Monday, 13 June 16
BALTIC INDEX FLAT, INDEX FOR CAPE RISE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities flat this past week. The freight market was almost same l ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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