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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 27 June 16
INDONESIA BANS (AGAIN) SHIPS SAILING TO THE PHILIPPINES FROM INDONESIA
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Transport Ministry strictly prohibited harbour masters issuing permits to all Indonesian-flagged vessels bound for the ...
Friday, 24 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP MARGINALLY
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.4 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 22 June 16
SMALL RISE IN SHIPPING CONFIDENCE - MOORE STEPHENS
In May 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.1 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high). ...
Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freig ...
Monday, 20 June 16
CS COAL INDICES CONTINUE UPWARD TREND SINCE END APRIL
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up again by 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton this past we ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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