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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 July 16
BREXIT SET TO HURT SHIPPING IN THE LONG-TERM AS IT WILL TAKE ITS TOLL IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY'S GROWTH - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Setting aside the short-term negative impact of the Brexit, in terms of stock market and currency volatility, it’s more than evident that the ...
Friday, 01 July 16
U.S'S COAL EXPORTS HAVE DECLINED FOR TWELVE QUARTERS IN A ROW - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.7 million short t ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
CAPE - THIS WEEK'S FREIGHT AND ACTIVITY LEVEL HAVE KEPT STABLE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
This week’s freight and activity level have kept stable. It is support at the present levels and despite a volatile market the freight ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
OIL PRODUCT TANKERS EARNINGS DECLINE AS STOCKBUILDING SLOWS DOWN - BIMCO
BIMCO’s expectations remain as the oil product tanker fleet continues to grow with earnings at the lowest since Q3 in 2014. But there is stil ...
Wednesday, 29 June 16
THE DRY BULK INDICES, OPPOSITE TO MOST GLOBAL MARKET INDICES, ROSE END OF LAST WEEK
Last week closed off with a massive shockwave for markets across the world following the British referendum, the result of which will mark the begi ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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