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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 July 16
DRY BULK MARKET: UP TO 30 MILLION DWT OF OLDER BULKERS WILL NEED TO BE SCRAPPED BY END OF 2017 FOR MARKET TO FIND BALANCE
Tonnage oversupply in the dry bulk market is more than evident, as newbuildings have been hitting the water faster than owners can scrap their olde ...
Friday, 08 July 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 3% TO 14.1 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.1 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
PANAMAX : THE TENDENCY FROM LAST WEEK CONTINUES WITH A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SENTIMENT ALL ACROSS THE BLOCK - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates have been holding at steady levels over the last weeks but towards end of this period they are becoming under more pressure as gen ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
CONSOLIDATION TO RULE OVER SHIPPING, AS EXECUTIVES SEEK INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA, INDIA AND EUROPE SAYS NORTON ROSE SURVEY
The transport sector is looking to Asia Pacific as the key market for investment over the next five years, according to the seventh The way ahead T ...
Wednesday, 06 July 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 780000 MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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