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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 July 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 15 MMST IN 2016 AND BY 4 MMST IN 2017
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production in June was 57 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (13%) increase from May and 9 MMst (14%) lower than in June 2 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
2015 VS. 2016; THE DRY BULK DEMOLITION DERBY - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In the first half of the year 373 Bulkers and General Cargo ships were scrapped representing 23.8mil tons of dwt carrying capacity.
Comparing ...
Tuesday, 12 July 16
DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS, CS COAL INDICES HELD AT THE SAME LEVEL OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was flat week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week.
Due to the ...
Monday, 11 July 16
COAL MARKETS SAW IMPROVED PRICES IN H1 2016 - SGX'S COMMODITIES MID-YEAR REFLECTION
COALspot.com: Coal
Coal markets saw improved prices in H1 2016 with the benchmark coking coal and thermal coal spot prices rising 18% and 25%, re ...
Monday, 11 July 16
THE MAIN SEA FREIGHT INDEX, BDI ROSE FURTHER ON 8 JULY DUE TO STRONG DEMAND FOR PANAMAX SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.84 percent from las ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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