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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 July 16
THE BDI FELL ON WEAKER RATES FOR CAPESIZE & PANAMAX VESSELS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape and Panamax segments ending in neg ...
Friday, 22 July 16
U.S COAL OUTPUT ROSE 17.2% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 21 July 16
WHAT TO DO WHEN YOU DON'T GET PAID - SHIPOWNERS CLUB
Present market conditions have led to an increase in claims related to unpaid hire. To recover unpaid hire, Owners need to fully understand who the ...
Thursday, 21 July 16
CONSTRUCTIVE TOTAL LOSS: WHAT GOES IN TO CALCULATING QUANTUM? - HILL DICKINSON
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Commercial Court recently delivered its judgment in an important case (Connect Shipping Inc and Machrimar Management ...
Wednesday, 20 July 16
EDIBLE OIL MARKETS ACROSS THE GLOBE REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The edible oil markets across the globe remain under pressure on the back of lackluster demand. Some of the main factors causing the low activity a ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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