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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 July 16
LAST WEEK ENDING UP WITH BUSIER TONES FOR SUPRAMAXES NOW COOLING DOWN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week ending up with busier tones for Supramaxes now cooling down as with index being down to 684. Average daily earnings for Supram ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
RATES FOR THE SMALLER SIZES OVER-PERFORMED THE MARKET LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
The decline the BDI noted last week was somewhat expected given the fact that the market has been overall firming for almost a month no ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN GLOBAL CONSUMPTION IN 2016 - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Global oil supply is expected to remain higher than global consumption in 2016, keeping oil prices at relatively low levels this summer compared wi ...
Tuesday, 26 July 16
NORTH P&I CLUB EXPLAINS HOW TO AVOID CLAIMS FOR SELF-COOKING SOYA BEANS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
North P&I Club has advised its members to be extra vigilant during loading and transport of soya beans to ensure they ...
Monday, 25 July 16
STRONG BUYER DEMAND PUSHING UP INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL INDICES
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.73 percent week over week to averaging $40.83 per ton this past week, shows C ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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