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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 August 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES ARE STARTING TO ZOOM HIGHER; HBA ROSE 10.13% TO US$ 58.37 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since August 2015.
The Director General of Mineral and Coa ...
Thursday, 04 August 16
BREXIT: IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL SHIPPING AND SEA TRADE - EVERSHEDS
The buzzword for the post-Brexit landscape both in Europe and further afield is ‘uncertainty’. No-one really knows the long term effect ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
RECAAP INFORMATION SHARING CENTRE ISSUES SPECIAL REPORT ON THE ABDUCTING OF CREW FROM SHIPS IN WATERS OFF EASTERN SABAH AND SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the light of three incidents where the crew of tug boats were abducted in the waters off Eastern Sabah and Southern Ph ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its glob ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIP TRADING AND ORDERING CLOSE TO A STALEMATE AS SUMMER LULL KICKS IN
With newbuilding activity already at a near standstill since the start of the year, most of 2016’s trading activity in shipping was evident i ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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