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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 August 16
THE BALTIC EXCHANGE, TRACKING RATES FOR SHIPS CARRYING DRY BULK COMMODITIES SLIDE SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Panamax and Supramax segments ending in ...
Monday, 08 August 16
ARE EXPENSES INCURRED DURING NEGOTIATION OF A PIRATE RANSOM RECOVERABLE IN GENERAL AVERAGE? - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Facts
The laden chemical tanker LONGCHAMP was transiting the Gulf of Aden on passage to Vietnam. The ship was subject t ...
Saturday, 06 August 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING CHARTER RATES TO RISE ON UNEXPECTED DEMAND GROWTH - DREWRY
Increasing trade and contracting supply will support a recovery in charter rates on major dry bulk shipping routes, with the prospect of China impo ...
Friday, 05 August 16
WEEKLY U.S. COAL OUTPUT TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 16.1 MMST IN THE WEEK ENDED JULY 30 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short tons ...
Friday, 05 August 16
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE REMAINING AT DEPRESSING LEVELS DUE TO LACK OF FRESH CARGOES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week has been one of the slowest for some time with rates under pressure in most areas.
In its latest weekly report, shipbroke ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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