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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 August 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ENDING AUGUST 6 FELL SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
CAPESIZE THE PACIFIC SIDE IS LOOKING MORE POSITIVE, DRIVEN BY AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rates continue to be under pressure with index ending up with 639 points and average TC value at USD6,680, said Fearnleys. Fearnleys A/S ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
EIA ESTIMATES THE DELIVERED COAL PRICE TO U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN 2017 AVERAGED $2.24/MMBTU; $0.05/MMBTU HIGHER THAN 2016 ESTIMATES
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in July was 65 million short tons (MMst), an 8 MMst (14%) increase from the previous month but 11 MMst (15%) low ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT SOFTENING LAST WEEK; WE CAN SEE MUCH HEALTHIER NUMBERS STARTING SEPTEMBER
The Dry Bulk market kept softening last week as we have now started going through the traditionally quieter days of the summer season peak period, ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE INDONESIAN DRAFT NEW MINING LAW - AMENDMENTS TO THE 2009 MINING LAW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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