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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 August 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX CLIMB 15.96% YEAR TO DATE - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 4200 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 1.65 % week over week to averaging $31.46 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) ...
Tuesday, 23 August 16
KOMIPO TO IMPORT 250K OF 5,700 KCAL/KG NAR COAL FOR Q4' 16
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for total 250,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for ...
Monday, 22 August 16
INDONESIA'S CS 5000 GAR THERMAL COAL INDEX, ROSE TO A 57-WEEKS HIGH TO TOP $43.47 A TON
COALspot.com: Indonesia’s CS 5000 GAR thermal coal index, rose to a 57-weeks high to top $US43. 47 a ton in the latest week, extending a 18-w ...
Monday, 22 August 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY THIS PAST WEEK; CAPE INDEX DECLINE 5.38%
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
Friday, 19 August 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALLED AN ESTIMATED 421.6 MMST
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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