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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 September 16
SUPRAMAX GETTING LEVELS OF MID/HIGHER 7K DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR TRIPS TO CHINA AND AROUND 9K FOR DIRECTION INDIA - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week started slower with London on bank holiday Monday. The south east Asian market seems to have been taking a breather with chart ...
Thursday, 01 September 16
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.33 PERCENT MORE COAL IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.10 bill ...
Wednesday, 31 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET MANAGED TO FIND FURTHER SUPPORT DURING THE LAST DAYS OF THE SUMMER SEASON - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market managed to find further support during the last days of the summer season, with the BDI climbing above 700 last Friday, reachin ...
Tuesday, 30 August 16
THE SUDDEN SURGE IN IRON ORE TRADE HAS CREPT UP ON THE MARKET THIS PAST WEEK - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The sudden surge in Iron ore trade has crept up on the market this past week bringing about a change in the prospects for Capes. Continued increase ...
Monday, 29 August 16
THE 5000 GAR THERMAL COAL INDEX HAS STRENGTHENED BY 9.90% SINCE JANUARY
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing upward and it is expected to ral ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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