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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 06 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE PACIFIC BASIN WAS THE MAIN REGION KEEPING UP WITH THE POSITIVE SUPPORT - ALLIED
Capesize
Despite some mixed feelings being seen early on in the week, we managed to see a positive week-on-week close on Friday with some positiv ...
Monday, 05 September 16
INDIA BECAME ADARO'S SECOND LARGEST MARKET IN 1H' 16
COALspot.com: The Wara Balangan blend product has been well received by customers in China and India - AI
In the second quarter of 2 ...
Monday, 05 September 16
POOR FREIGHT RATES DESPITE STRONG DEMAND GROWTH FROM CHINA - BIMCO
Demand
The dry bulk commodity imports into and exports out of China we have seen in the first half of 2016 are very positive – and nothing ...
Monday, 05 September 16
FREIGHT RATE FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
Friday, 02 September 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 19 MMST IN 2016 TO 55 MMST
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million sho ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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