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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 August 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY AND FIRM THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 18.74%
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
Friday, 26 August 16
WEEKLY US COAL OUTPUT UP 0.7% W/W TO 16 MMST: EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
Thursday, 25 August 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE BEING FIXED IN REGION OF $9000
Supramax
Due to Chinese coal imports which continues to source much of the tonnage in SE Asia combined with a good flow of mineral exports ex Aus ...
Wednesday, 24 August 16
MARKET INSIGHT
Brazil and the world bid farewell on Sunday to the first Olympic Games in South America in the midst of a finale meant to be both one last bash and ...
Wednesday, 24 August 16
DRY BULK VESSELS FACE CONTINUED DISTRESS - CLEAR ASSET
Dry bulk vessels have faced extreme distress in recent years. With a combination of factors including newer vessels being ordered with up to 5-year ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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