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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 18 August 16
CAPESIZE: AN EXTREMELY VOLATILE LAST WEEK, WHERE THE MAIN DRIVER HAS BEEN THE WEST AUSTRALIA MARKET
Supramax
The week has held up. After the most of the world is back at work there is some optimism again in the market. The Far East volume has in ...
Tuesday, 16 August 16
WEEKLY CS42 COAL INDEX SOARS 14.08% YEAR TO DATE AMID HIGH DEMAND
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 2.37% week over week to averaging $42.84 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Monday, 15 August 16
DRY BULK: 2017 COULD MARK THE START OF LOWER SHIP DELIVERIES HELPING TONNAGE SUPPLY ISSUES IN THE MARKET, SAYS SHIPOWNER - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk owner Pacific Basin, mainly active in the Handysize and Supramax trades appeared optimistic in its analysis of the prospects of the dry bu ...
Monday, 15 August 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES RALLYING; COAL OUTPUT REMAINS FLAT
COALspot.com: Global thermal coal prices, including Indonesian coal prices have risen sharply due to jump in imports from China as it curbs domesti ...
Monday, 15 August 16
THE SPOT FREIGHT MARKET STRENGTHEN OVER THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose as Cape and Panamax segments ending in a positive no ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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