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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 09 August 16
CS50 COAL INDEX HITS NEW FIFTY-WEEKS HIGH
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 1.78% week over week to averaging $41.85 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND WORLD TRADE ON THE DECLINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YEARS - VDKI
Hard coal production and world trade on the decline for the first time in years – not a harbinger of a global energy turnaround
Worldwid ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
BREXIT, BRITANNIA AND THE WAVES - TREVOR CROWE, CLARKSON RESEARCH
This week, the Bank of England put into place its action plan following the UK referendum on 23rd June, which indicated the British population&rsqu ...
Monday, 08 August 16
INDONESIA'S DRAFT MINING LAW HINTS AT FUTURE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
Monday, 08 August 16
THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT HAS IMPOSED A $15 A TON DUTY ON POWER PLANT COAL IMPORTS - MEDIA
COALspot.com: The Turkish government has imposed a US$15 per ton duty on thermal coal imports for use in its power sector.
According to media ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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